In the ongoing phase of assembly elections, three of the five states have locked their choices in the electronic voting machines (EVMs). Rajasthan and Telangana will vote for their next governments on Friday, December 7. Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram have recorded in excess of 75 per cent voting percentage.

The BJP and the Congress are in direct fight in Hindi-belt states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Multi-cornered fight is expected in Mizoram and Telangana. The BJP is trying to make an electoral statement in both the states.

Who will form governments in these states? The voting pattern and results in the elections held since the Narendra Modi government took oath at the Centre in May 2014 give some indications.

Increased Voting Works For BJP

A total of 21 states excluding the current five went to polls since the Narendra Modi government was sworn in. Of these, the BJP was not a power to reckon with in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry all elected their governments in 2016.

Of the remaining 17 states electing new government since May 2014, 10 states recorded increased voting percentage. The BJP benefitted in the assembly elections in seven of these states.

Between October and December in 2014, Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir went to polls. In Maharashtra, voting percentage improved from 60 per cent in 2009 assembly election to 64 per cent in 2014 polls. The BJP emerged as the single-largest party falling 22 short of majority but replaced the Congress as the ruling party in Maharashtra after the polls.